Research only — not betting advice. Market-blind models that never see the odds; every
pick is locked before the game and graded in public on the
track record, split
by information tier.
MLB: team Elo + xFIP & SIERA starting-pitcher ratings + season-to-date bullpen FIP +
per-plate-appearance TrueSkill on-base ratings + lineup isolated-power + lineup baserunning.
NFL: 14-feature blend around an 11v11 per-snap participation TrueSkill
.
NHL: tuned Elo + rest & back-to-back + an expected-goals team rating (updated on shot
quality, never on results); no lineup or goalie input, so every NHL forecast is published as an
EARLY-tier lean, not a pick; skater cards show teammate-adjusted xG/60 (RAPM, display only).
Data:
Retrosheet (free of charge, copyrighted by Retrosheet,
retrosheet.org) and the MLB Stats API (individual,
non-commercial use); NFL data from
nflverse (community-maintained); NHL data from the
NHL Stats API and shot xG from
MoneyPuck.com (used with attribution, non-commercial research);
NFL and NHL live scores from ESPN's public scoreboard (display only — never a model input,
never used to grade).